Golf takes a swing at its own statistics. Unlock the secrets of golf’s performance revolution and discover why Strokes Gained is changing the game. From a derivative securities specialist to PGA Tour’s adoption, this article takes you on a journey to a new world of data analysis, where the long game outweighs putting and conventional stats are a thing of the past. Follow the story of how a passionate golfer took on the challenge, and how his findings are now helping players achieve victories they never thought possible.

In his book ‘Moneyball’ (later turned into a movie starring Brad Pitt) the author Michael Lewis tells the story of how a struggling baseball team, the Oakland A’s, transformed their fortunes with a comprehensive overhaul of the club’s culture and methods of operation.

It was a complex journey, but one triggered by the critical yet simple revelation that the sport was – and incredibly always had been – collecting the wrong statistics with which to measure performance. Traditionalists initially poured scorn on the new ideas and refuted the findings because they contrasted wildly with established truths. But the previously hapless A’s suddenly became regular contenders in the World Series. Inevitably, other baseball teams followed their lead and soon other sports followed suit. Sport’s number revolution had begun.

Golf was a natural battleground for this upheaval, and yet it took a derivative securities specialist from Columbia Business School to embrace the challenge. An enthusiastic amateur golfer, Mark Broadie was frustrated by the limitations of the sport’s traditional stats and improving upon them became an itch he just had to scratch.

His answer to the problem (Strokes Gained) was adopted by the PGA Tour in 2011, transforming the sport in the process, while also prompting everything from doubt to outright scepticism from many diehards. The reason? Just as in baseball, the data did not just diverge from conventional wisdom, it openly questioned it. In Broadie’s case, his numbers argued that it is not putting which separates the wheat from the chaff, but the long game.

To many, including the sceptics, Strokes Gained remains something of a perplexing riddle. For others, it has provided outstanding opportunities. Duncan Carey, for example, has been a PGA professional for over 20 years, one whose passion for digging deep was ignited by sport’s statistical innovations. Now a Performance Analyst and Strategy Consultant, he was an integral part of Team Europe’s 2018 Ryder Cup triumph and is now employed by tour players to data-dissect every element of their game.

There is perhaps no-one better to illuminate the limitations of traditional stats which measured nothing more complex than Driving Accuracy, Greens in Regulation, Scrambling and Putts per Round. “Imagine two players on the first hole, both find the fairway, one hits it to a foot, the other to 50-feet, and both hole for birdie,” Carey says. “There is nothing in those stats which highlights the very different manner they played the hole. In other words, in a very basic way, traditional stats were falling down. The value of the information was not just limited, it was very limited. There was no credit for quality and no differentiation between skill sets.”

If that pattern of play had maintained for the entire round, Carey explains that the stats would not merely be painting a simplistic picture, but a downright deceptive one. “Two very different golfers,” he says with a laugh, “would appear to be very, very alike.”

The Putts per Round category revealed another key flaw in traditional data acquisition. “A golfer might have 18 putts and be praised as a brilliant putter yet have missed every green and chipped stone dead,” says Carey. “In reality, that golfer is a very fine chipper.

“Broadie’s answer, Strokes Gained, measures every shot by what the player should do with ‘should do’ being a comparison of every shot with all the data collected. If a player performs above average, he gains credit. It allows us to drill down, to truly assess what a golfer is good at and what needs improvement.”

Carey’s first steps into this new world came ahead of the 2016 Ryder Cup, helping captain Darren Clarke and the European Tour gather numbers that would permit some sort of comparison between performance either side of the Atlantic. Prior to his intervention, that was an impossible task because the PGA Tour utilised its own all-encompassing Shotlink data to enhance Strokes Gained, while the European Tour remained ineffectually yoked to the past.

Carey now works with individuals and is able to provide multi-dimensional insight. “It starts with performance,” he explains. “We offer feedback about what they might want to work on, aspects of their game which might be costing them a missed cut or even victories.

“We also look closely at schedules. Remember, these guys are very, very good so they can win anywhere and on any course. But we can say, look you’re more likely to excel on this course than that one, and players will shape a schedule in that way.”

A good example is the Australian Marc Leishman who, early in the 2021/22 season, was undecided about which events to add to his schedule. Over 10 years ago he had missed two cuts at TPC Summerlin so was reluctant to return, but Cary identified it as a good fit for his current game. “He finished third,” Carey says. “And normally he wouldn’t have considered going back there.”

Carey’s third dimension is delivered prior to each tournament. “I produce a course strategy guide bespoke to every player,” he explains. “It profiles every hole, highlighting the penalty for missing fairways and greens. It also reveals the difficulty (or otherwise) of saving par from different areas around the green, and it examines how easy or difficult lag putting or short putting has historically been. It’s purposefully very visual to give both the caddie and player quick, incisive information.”

Carey will also have prepared his players in the lead-up to an event. “We investigate approach shot distribution and ask the question ‘What shot will you be hitting frequently in the next few weeks?’ It could be lots of short irons from 150-yards and nothing between 200 and 225 yards, or vice-versa. That information helps the player on the range. They can plan to beat the course and get ahead of the game.”

Carey’s ability to take common wisdom and inject it with insight is best demonstrated when discussing the Ryder Cup. How many of us have vague notions of what is required within foursome and fourball combinations? Carey is necessarily rather more focused. “In foursomes, you don’t want someone who is stellar when hitting approaches from the fairway playing with a wayward driver. Similarly, an errant approach game alongside a poor chipper is a terrible combination. You need to maximise the combinations.”

The Scottish scholar Andrew Lang once wrote: “Most people use statistics like a drunk man uses a lamp-post; more for support than illumination.” Lang was actually based in St Andrews, the Home of Golf, and was a contemporary of Old Tom Morris. It’s doubtful he had Strokes Gained in mind, but you sense that, in spirit at least, he’d be pleased to know that the sport has finally seen the light.